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ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Reported revenue $4.63B (+2% YoY as reported; -2% CC; +1% organic CC) and diluted EPS $0.38; adjusted EPS $0.83 as restructuring and Argentina hyperinflation charges reduced EPS by $0.45 .
  • Adjusted EPS modestly beat S&P Global consensus by ~$0.02 ($0.83 vs $0.813*) and revenue beat by ~$$0.04B ($4.63B vs $4.60B*) as Manpower crossed back to organic CC growth after 11 quarters of declines .*
  • Gross margin compressed to 16.6% on enterprise client mix, softer perm recruitment, and lower outplacement; SG&A declined YoY with additional restructuring actions .
  • Q4 guidance: diluted EPS $0.78–$0.88 (incl. +$0.08 FX), GP margin 16.4–16.6%, EBITA margin 2.0–2.2%, operating margin 1.8–2.0%, tax rate 46.5%; constant currency revenue -2% to +2% .
  • Narrative catalysts: return to organic growth, visible SG&A leverage into Q4, AI-driven commercial wins (SoFi AI) and MSP strength, offset by mix-driven margin pressure and RPO/Right Management weakness .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Returned to organic CC revenue growth (+1%) and continued stabilization in North America/Europe with strong demand in Latin America/APME; Manpower brand grew 3% organically CC .
  • Adjusted EBITDA/EBITA and EPS landed within guidance; adjusted EPS $0.83 versus guidance midpoint $0.82, supported by improved operations (+$0.02) .
  • AI commercialization: SoFi AI now deployed across 14 markets, ~30% of new client revenue derived from AI-rated probability; cited as differentiator in RPO/MSP wins .

What Went Wrong

  • Gross margin fell to 16.6% (-70 bps YoY) due to enterprise account mix, softer perm recruitment (-20 bps), and lower outplacement (-10 bps) .
  • Experis revenue declined 7% organically CC; Talent Solutions declined 8% on lower RPO and outplacement; Northern Europe remains loss-making (as adjusted OUP ≈ -$1M) despite restructuring .
  • Reported EPS compressed to $0.38 on restructuring and Argentina hyperinflation charges (-$0.45 EPS impact), and FX headwinds versus prior-year constant currency .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$4.53 $4.09 $4.52 $4.63
Gross Profit ($USD Billions)$0.78 $0.70 $0.76 $0.77
Gross Margin %17.3% (calc from GP/Rev) 17.1% 16.9% 16.6%
Operating Profit ($USD Millions)$70.8 $28.2 ($25.3) $66.6
Diluted EPS (Reported)$0.47 $0.12 ($1.44) $0.38
Adjusted EPS ($)N/A$0.44 $0.78 $0.83
Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (Quarter)Q3 2025 Consensus*Q3 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD)$4,596.9M*$4,634.4M
Diluted EPS (Adjusted)$0.813*$0.83
EBITDA/EBITA ($USD)$109.7M*EBITA/EBITDA ≈ $74M reported; $96M adjusted

Note: S&P Global values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment revenue and OUP (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024):

SegmentRevenue Q3 2024 ($M)Revenue Q3 2025 ($M)YoY ReportedOUP Q3 2024 ($M)OUP Q3 2025 ($M)
Americas (Total)1,050.5 1,098.7 +4.6% 36.1 37.9
United States (subset)697.4 690.8 -0.9% 22.3 20.6
Southern Europe (Total)2,095.6 2,205.5 +5.2% 75.8 65.6
France1,156.8 1,173.5 +1.4% 41.2 30.6
Italy419.1 462.5 +10.3% 27.4 26.6
Other Southern Europe519.7 569.5 +9.6% 7.2 8.4
Northern Europe828.3 816.8 -1.4% (25.7) (14.9)
APME562.8 520.5 -7.5% 23.0 26.8

KPIs (Q3 2025):

KPIQ3 2025
Business line gross profit mix: Manpower 63%, Experis 21%, Talent Solutions 16%
DSO59 days (+1 day QoQ)
Systemwide revenue (incl. franchise)$4.9B
Net debt$941M; total debt $1.2B; total debt/total capitalization 38%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Diluted EPSQ3 2025$0.77–$0.87 Actual adjusted $0.83 In-line (within range)
Diluted EPSQ4 2025N/A$0.78–$0.88; includes +$0.08 FX New
Revenue (CC)Q4 2025N/A-2% to +2% CC; midpoint ~flat New
Gross Profit MarginQ4 2025N/A16.4–16.6% New
EBITA MarginQ4 2025N/A2.0–2.2% New
Operating MarginQ4 2025N/A1.8–2.0% New
Effective Tax RateQ4 202546.5% (guided in Q3 call) 46.5% Maintained
Weighted Avg Diluted SharesQ4 2025N/A47.1M New
DividendSemi-annualPrior semi-annual cadence$0.72 per share, payable Dec 15, 2025 Declared

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI/technology initiativesFocus on “Diversify, Digitize and Innovate”; strengthening digital core to accelerate AI adoption SoFi AI scaled to 14 markets; ~30% of new client revenue AI-rated; improves win rates; pipeline prioritization Accelerating execution/commercial impact
Macro/tariffsIncreased caution following trade policy developments Stabilization despite tariff uncertainty; employers more resilient to policy noise Stabilizing sentiment
Segment performanceManpower/Talent Solutions crossed back to growth; Experis sluggis h Manpower +3% org CC; Experis -7%; MSP strong; RPO/Right Management weak Mixed; Manpower leading
Regional trendsLATAM/APAC demand strong; EU/NA challenging LATAM/APME strong; EU/NA stable; France/Italy improving exit rates; UK/Germany weak APAC/LATAM strength; EU/NA stabilizing
Cost actions/restructuringOngoing restructuring Northern Europe heavy restructuring ($11M Germany); SG&A leverage improving into Q4 Intensifying, beginning to show leverage
Free cash flowH1 negative; seasonality/timing impacts Q3 positive FCF $45M; Q4 typically strong; MSP timing, tax and license payments front-loaded Improving H2 pattern

Management Commentary

  • “After 11 consecutive quarters of organic constant currency revenue declines, we crossed back over to growth during the third quarter.”
  • “Our ongoing modernization of the Experis offering, including… tighter integration of our PowerSuite AI tools is supporting margin improvement and future growth as client demand recovers.”
  • “SoFi AI is now driving measurable gains with approximately 30% of new client revenue derived from AI rated probability… deployed across 14 key markets and scaling further.”
  • “Balancing gross profit trends with strong cost actions to enhance EBITDA margin is one of our highest priorities… analyze all aspects of our cost base for additional ongoing efficiency improvements.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Margin dynamics: Consolidated GP margin pressure primarily from enterprise mix; no broad pricing erosion; softer perm/outplacement weighed on GP .
  • Demand indicators: Monitoring enterprise activity, assignment starts in logistics/manufacturing, and seasonal patterns; Europe/NA demand holding steady .
  • Regional outlook: France trend improved into September, Italy accelerating; UK/Germany weak (auto, construction pressure) but Northern Europe OUP improved with restructuring .
  • SG&A leverage: Q4 guide implies SG&A driving stable EBITDA despite slight GP compression; reflects restructuring benefits .
  • Free cash flow: H1 headwinds from MSP timing, tax, and tech licenses; Q3 positive; Q4 typically strong; stabilized trailing-12 EBITDA to support FCF trajectory .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 results vs consensus: Adjusted EPS $0.83 vs $0.813* (beat ~$$0.02); Revenue $4.634B vs $4.597B* (beat ~$$0.04B); EBITDA/EBITA ~$110M vs $109.7M* (in line to slight beat) .*
  • Q4 2025 setup: Guidance midpoint EPS ~$0.83 vs consensus $0.82*; CC revenue midpoint flat; margins guided roughly flat YoY (EBITA) .*
  • Implications: Modest estimate upward bias for EPS on execution/SG&A leverage; potential downticks to GP margin/Experis/Right Management lines until perm/outplacement normalize .

Note: S&P Global consensus values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Return to organic CC growth and stable Europe/North America suggest cyclical bottoming; Manpower brand strength provides early-cycle exposure .
  • Near term, margin mix headwinds persist given enterprise-heavy demand; watch perm recruitment and Right Management volumes for margin inflection .
  • SG&A leverage is the Q4 swing factor; restructuring benefits increasingly visible, supporting stable EBITDA despite slight GP compression .
  • AI is moving from pilots to commercial impact (SoFi AI); MSP/RPO win rates aided by AI, a medium-term differentiator and potential share gain driver .
  • Regional positioning: Italy/Japan strong; UK/Germany lag; continued restructuring in Northern Europe should narrow losses .
  • Balance sheet: Net debt manageable; debt covenants with revolver headroom; Q4 FCF seasonality likely supportive of de-leveraging .
  • Dividend: Semi-annual $0.72 declared; signals confidence in cash generation trajectory despite H1 headwinds .

Sources: Q3 press release and 8-K with exhibits ; Q3 earnings call transcript ; Q2 and Q1 press releases for trend analysis ; Dividend press release ; Jefferson Wells CFO survey press release .